We assess that the deterioration of US democratic governance has accelerated since our last assessment in June. The defining change of the summer is one of kind, not degree: the administration has moved from retribution against individuals and institutions to intervention in the machinery of the November 3 midterm elections. The period from election day to the seating of the new Congress on January 3, 2027, is probably the window of greatest risk to constitutional order prior to the 2028 election.

We assess that President Trump’s chronic need to reward loyalists and appease dictators is a primary driver of America’s path toward authoritarianism. Trump’s creation of a $1.776 billion slush fund to reward anyone claiming they were “persecuted” by the Biden Administration suggests he may see a need to remind people who have proven willing to use violence on his behalf of what is at stake in upcoming elections, securing their loyalty and possible engagement in advance.

We assess that executive overreach continues to be the primary driver of authoritarianism in America, exacerbated by President Trump’s apparent diminished mental state. Traditional Trump allies, from Tucker Carlson to former Vice President Mike Pence to MAGA pastor Doug Wilson, have expressed concern over recent actions-notably those linked to actions broadly seen in MAGA circles as blasphemous, and over Trump’s conflict with Iran. Coupled with his lowest poll numbers ever and coming on the heels of additional Democrat victories in redistricting referendums and other electoral races, we assess the foundations of MAGA are beginning to shake. Nonetheless, the federal government remains firmly in the grip of anti-democratic forces.

We assess that the main driver of increasing authoritarianism in America remains executive overreach, compounded by a renewed presidential focus on securing a legacy through any means, but especially through President Trump’s pursuit of vanity projects—including not only his war in Iran but various events linked to America’s 250^th birthday. Trump this month convinced a panel he appointed to approve an initiative to put his name on a commemorative coin, dissembled about his choice of White House drapes during a Medal of Honor ceremony, and is moving forward with plans to host a MMA fight on the White House grounds as part of a massive birthday celebration meant to link his 80th birthday (June 14) to America’s.

We assess with high confidence that the cumulative effect of the Trump Administration’s ongoing actions indicates that democratic backsliding continues. While some institutional resistance exists and may be growing, the trajectory poses both immediate and long-term risks to constitutional order and national security.

We assess with high confidence that the cumulative effect of the Trump Administration’s ongoing actions indicates that democratic backsliding continues. While some institutional resistance exists and may be growing, the trajectory poses both immediate and long-term risks to constitutional order and national security.

This assessment, Accelerating Authoritarian Dynamics: Assessment of Democratic Decline, authored by members of The Steady State, all of whom are former U.S. Intelligence Community officers with analytic responsibilities, applies the analytic tradecraft of the U.S. Intelligence Community to conditions inside the United States. It concludes—with moderate to high confidence—that the cumulative effect of multiple reinforcing dynamics is placing the nation on a trajectory toward competitive authoritarianism: a system in which elections, courts, and other democratic institutions persist in form but are systematically manipulated to entrench executive control.