FREDONIA PROJECT - SITREP 33: U.S. PRESIDENT TRUMP’S SHIFT AWAY FROM UKRAINE AND EUROPE
CABLE ID: 2026-1021-FRED/WASH/SITREP-033
DATE-TIME GROUP:10211800ZOCT026.
FROM: EMBASSY OF FREDONIA, WASHINGTON, D.C.
TO: MFA NAGADOCHES
CLASSIFICATION: CONFIDENTIAL // FREDONIAN EYES ONLY
SUBJECT: U.S. PRESIDENT TRUMP SHIFT AWAY FROM UKRAINE AND EUROPE IN FAVOR OF PUTIN’S RUSSIA
SUMMARY: IN ACCORDANCE WITH MFA DIRECTIVE 1826-APRIL-1 THIS EMBASSY HAS INITIATED A REGULAR SERIES OF ANALYTICAL DISPATCHES REGARDING THE INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE UNITED STATES. THE SERIES, DESIGNATED “THE FREDONIA PROJECT,” WILL BE CIRCULATED UNDER STANDARD SITREP PROTOCOL. UNAUTHORIZED PUBLICATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED VIA THIRD-PARTY ENTITY KNOWN AS “THE STEADY STATE.” PRESUMED LEAK. NO ACTION REQUIRED.
As of mid-October 2026, U.S. President Donald J. Trump is taking (or avoiding ) actions that seem to signal his determination to ally more closely with Russia on a range of international issues. Mr. Trump’s choice to ally with Putin in this case seems to portend the President’s decision to more completely and rapidly abandon U.S. military assistance to Ukraine as it battles with Russia. (Ambassador Comment: It has been clear since Trump traveled down the golden escalator in Trump Tower, that he holds Russian President Vladimir Putin, and other “leaders” of that ilk in high esteem. It has been equally evident that Trump is not interested in historically respected leaders like Ghandi, Roosevelt, or Churchill, but emulates such people as Louis XIV, Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Viktor Yanukovich, and Robert Mugabe in leadership “style,” right down to the gold paint covering anything and everything that stands still for long enough.)
On 3 March 2025, the Trump administration halted all upcoming military shipments, weapons, artillery ammunition, air defense systems (such as Patriot batteries), and on 5 March added intelligence-sharing to the list to pressure Kyiv into peace negotiations with Russia. (Ambassador comments: In a striking example of Trump’s dependability and trustworthiness (not), these suspensions were lifted a week later on March 11 following a chat with Ukrainian representatives in Saudi Arabia. This was repeated in July 2025 with a second, narrower halt to selected weapons shipments, officially attributed to concerns about U.S. stockpiles. It, too, was followed by a quick resumption of deliveries. )
On October 18 2026, Zelenskyy reported a temporary interruption in U.S. intelligence-sharing. On October 19, Secretary of State Marco Rubio disputed that account, saying there had been no interruption. Reporting separately described restrictions on Ukraine’s military use of Starshield satellite communications. These are disputed reports of a recent interruption, not a publicly confirmed, comprehensive suspension of all U.S. intelligence-sharing.
(Ambassador Comments: As of this writing, it is not clear whether, and if so, how long, this Starshield-associated “interruption” will be in place. In the meantime, a food fight has erupted between Donny and Starshield’s developer, Elon Musk, with each yelling that “it didn’t happen” and if it did, “the other guy did it.” Just today, Elon has indicated it was his decision, which is troublesome at best; this is still unclear and the level of any coordination with the Commander in Chief is murky at best. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the military is left to guess if, when and for how long they will be left to defend against incoming missiles without the benefit of this US intelligence capability.
Waiting for Trump to seriously commit to supporting Ukrainian efforts in this war is another fool’s errand. The U.S. president is Putin’s biggest fanboy, and the struggles of democratic Ukraine to protect their country from a partial or complete Russian takeover do not move or interest Trump, as he repeatedly defers to Putin’s clear refusal to stop the war-in-search-of-land.)
As tensions between the US and Ukraine continued to rise, on 18 October 2026, the U.S. President unilaterally waived several energy and oil sanctions on Russia, originally levied in response to Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And Mr. Trump continues his long-term effort to pursue energy and diesel deals with Russia.
(Ambassador Comment: Mr. Trump is trying to sell his current efforts to overturn existing sanctions on Russia as supporting the national security interests of the United States. It does not appear that anyone is buying that argument. This decision has resulted not only in criticism of Trump by Ukraine’s leadership but, quite amazingly, by a bipartisan group of U.S. Congresspeople.
In addition to his idolization of the Russian dictator, and The Trump Enterprise business interests, Trump’s Russia “policies” may well be driven by political events in the U.S. His party’s appeal across the board is cratering, and he has subsequently turned to explaining that lifting the oil sanctions will miraculously lower the high prices Americans are now paying for diesel. No one is buying this either.
It seems reasonable that as the dates of the mid-term elections in the United States grow closer [right now the elections in the US will be held on 3 November, in about two weeks], any actions he takes to try to bolster his position and future will appear and, in fact, may well be, out of desperation.
While a majority of Congress has, in the past, supported Ukraine in its war with Russia, it is unclear what measures Congress will support in the new year. Polls, for what they are worth, seem to indicate that the Republican Party is having significant difficulties convincing midterm voters to support them, and should that be true,the control of the purse will switch to the Democrats in the next year, and the new Congress might be willing to fight Trump’s support of Putin’s policies with more urgency.
And amidst all this chaos, Kyiv burns.)
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